{"id":2232,"date":"2013-01-21T17:04:06","date_gmt":"2013-01-21T09:04:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/?p=2232"},"modified":"2023-02-17T16:17:56","modified_gmt":"2023-02-17T08:17:56","slug":"%e5%bf%ab%e6%80%9d%e6%85%a2%e6%83%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/%e5%bf%ab%e6%80%9d%e6%85%a2%e6%83%b3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\u300b\u6559\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4e8b\uff1a\u4eba\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u6368\u4e0d\u5f97\u505c\u640d\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5728\u66f8\u5e97\u4e2d\u7528\u5305\u819c\u5c01\u8d77\u4f86\u7684\u66f8\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8ce3\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u300a\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\u300b\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u662f2002\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u5eb7\u7d0d\u66fc\u535a\u58eb(Daniel Kahneman)\u3002\u66f8\u672c\u88e1\u9762\u63a2\u8a0e\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u5169\u7a2e\u601d\u8003\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u7528\u985e\u4f3c\u672c\u80fd\u53cd\u61c9\u7684\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u8f03\u6703\u6df1\u601d\u7684\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u5f8c\u8005\u537b\u5e38\u88ab\u524d\u8005\u672c\u80fd\u601d\u8003\u727d\u8457\u8d70\u3002\u5f9e\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u5438\u6536\u5230\u8a31\u591a\u5f71\u97ff\u4eba\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7576\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u90fd\u8ddf\u6211\u5011\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u5bcc\u670b\u53cb\u63a8\u85a6\u60f3\u8981\u5b78\u7fd2\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u82b1\u9ede\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u95b1\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u5f9e\u66f8\u4e2d\u5b78\u7fd2\u4eba\u6703\u505a\u51fa\u932f\u8aa4\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u50cf\u300c\u6368\u4e0d\u5f97\u505c\u640d\u300d\u5c31\u662f\u7d93\u5178\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u5be6\u4f8b\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u904e\u6295\u8cc7\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u6703\u9762\u81e8\u8a72\u4e0d\u8a72\u505c\u640d\u9019\u7a2e\u95dc\u9375\u6642\u523b\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5f88\u96e3\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u540c\u8981\u627f\u8a8d\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u932f\u4e8b\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u8981\u63a5\u53d7\u81ea\u5df1\u6295\u8cc7\u8667\u640d\u662f\u4ef6\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u505c\u640d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/two-investmentmistakes.html\">\u5c11\u6578\u4eba\u80fd\u5920\u7406\u6027\u505a\u5230\u7684\u4e8b<\/a>\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u5be7\u9858\u7e7c\u7e8c\u770b\u8457\u640d\u5931\u800c\u4e0d\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5c31\u662f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u640d\u5931\u3001\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e0d\u77e5\u6240\u63aa\u3002\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u5982\u6b64\uff1f\u662f\u60f3\u8ced\u4e00\u628a\uff1f\u4e0d\u9858\u9762\u5c0d\u4e8b\u5be6\uff1f\u9084\u662f\u89ba\u5f97\u6295\u8cc7\u6703\u6f32\u56de\u4f86\uff1f\u6211\u60f3\u501f\u93e1\u5eb7\u7d0d\u66fc\u535a\u58eb\u66f8\u4e2d\u5167\u5bb9\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u9019\u884c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\" href=\"http:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/exep\/assp.php\/alvin17rich\/products\/0010567579\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/addons.books.com.tw\/G\/001\/7\/0010562857.jpg\" width=\"180\" height=\"248\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u662f\u672c\u80fd\u55ce\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4eba\u5728\u505a\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u504f\u597d\u800c\u5c0d\u67d0\u4e8b\u7269\u52a0\u5206\u8207\u6263\u5206\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u9078\u8cfc\u4e00\u53f0\u8eca\uff0c\u559c\u6b61\u9ad8\u8abf\u3001\u6642\u5c1a\u3001\u6d41\u7dda\u8eca\u578b\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8207\u559c\u6b61\u4f4e\u8abf\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u7701\u6cb9\u8eca\u7a2e\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8a55\u4f30\u4e00\u8f1b\u8eca\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u8207\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e0d\u9700\u523b\u610f\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u8166\u888b\u81ea\u7136\u6703\u505a\u51fa\u4f60\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u81ea\u5df1\u6c92\u6709\u5bdf\u89ba\u3002\u540c\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u7576\u6211\u5011\u9762\u5c0d\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u505a\u8a55\u4f30\u6642\uff08\u8b6c\u5982\u8a72\u4e0d\u8a72\u505c\u640d\uff1f\uff09\uff0c\u6b0a\u8861\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7d50\u679c\u5728\u4f60\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u8457\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u8acb\u8a66\u8457\u56de\u7b54\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u984c\uff0c\u7528\u76f4\u89ba\u601d\u8003\u4f60\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u54ea\u4e00\u500b\uff1f<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u9078\u64c7A\uff1a\u4f60\u78ba\u5b9a\u6703\u5f97\u5230100\u842c\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u9078\u64c7B\uff1a\u4f60\u67091\uff05\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\uff0c89\uff05\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u5f97\u5230100\u842c\u5143\uff0c10\uff05\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u5f97\u5230500\u842c\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662fA\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4f60\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u4eba\u591a\u52e2\u773e\u9019\u908a\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u5229\u76ca\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u9078B\u5c0d\u4f60\u800c\u8a00\u624d\u662f\u6709\u5229\u3002\u6211\u5011\u76f4\u63a5\u8df3\u904e\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\u6578\u5b78\u9019\u90e8\u4efd\uff0c\u9078\u64c7B\u78ba\u5be6\u6703\u6bd4\u9078\u64c7A\u591a\u66f4\u591a\u8cfa\u9322\uff0cB\u5728\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0a\u6bd4\u8f03\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5b83\u67091%\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u3002\uff08\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u90191%\u5f71\u97ff\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u505a\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\uff09<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8a3b1<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5eb7\u7d0d\u66fc\u535a\u58eb\u5728\u300a\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\u300b\u5c0d\u9019\u73fe\u8c61\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u554f\u6cd5\uff1a\u5728\u4e0b\u5217\u5404\u81ea\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u554f\u984cC\u8207\u554f\u984cD\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u5206\u5225\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u554f\u984cC\uff1a\u907861%\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u8d0f\u5f9752\u842c\u5143\uff0c\u6216\u907863%\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u53bb\u8d0f\u5f9750\u842c\u5143\u3002\u4f60\u9078\u54ea\u4e00\u500b\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u554f\u984cD\uff1a\u907898%\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u8d0f\u5f9752\u842c\u5143\uff0c\u6216\u9078100%\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d0f\u5f9750\u842c\u5143\u3002\u4f60\u8981\u54ea\u4e00\u500b\uff1f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u4ecd\u50cf\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u554f\u984cC\u9078\u64c761%\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u8d0f52\u842c\uff0c\u554f\u984cD\u9078\u64c7100%\u8d0f\u5f9750\u842c\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u7406\u6027\u4f86\u8aaa\u4f60\u5c31\u9677\u5165\u908f\u8f2f\u4e0a\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u4f46\u5148\u5225\u7dca\u5f35\uff0c\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u908f\u8f2f\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u5927\u773e\u5fc3\u7406\u4f86\u8aaa\u5f88\u5408\u7406\u3002\u4ee5\u908f\u8f2f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u554f\u984cC\u5982\u679c\u907861%\u5f9752\u842c\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u554f\u984cD\u4e2d\u61c9\u8a72\u4e5f\u8981\u907898%\u5f9752\u842c\u624d\u5408\u7406\u3002\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u56e0\u70ba\u4f60\u4ed4\u7d30\u6bd4\u8f03\u5169\u500b\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u554f\u984cD\u53ea\u662f\u628a\u6a5f\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684\u554f\u984cC\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u4e2d\u5169\u500b\u9078\u9805\u90fd\u63d0\u5347\u4e8637%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u91d1\u984d\u9084\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba50\u842c\u5143\u7684\u90a3\u500b\u9078\u9805\u5f9e\u539f\u672c63%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5230100%\u78ba\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ff\u5230\uff0c\u9019100%\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u8da8\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u5fc3\u88e1\u504f\u5411\u9078\u64c7\u62ff\u8f03\u5c11\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ff\u5230\u7684\u9078\u9805\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul><!--EndFragment--><\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u4eba\u559c\u6b61\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u4f46\u8a0e\u53ad\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u640d\u5931<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u78ba\u5b9a\u300d\u80fd\u5e36\u7d66\u4eba\u5b89\u5fc3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7576\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u6709\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u9078\u9805\u6642\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u9078\u9805\u6295\u65bc\u8f03\u591a\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u524d\u9762\u8aaa\u6211\u5011\u6703\u56e0\u500b\u4eba\u559c\u597d\u800c\u5c0d\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u52a0\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u6703\u7d66\u78ba\u5b9a\u9078\u9805\u52a0\u4e0d\u5c11\u5206\u6578\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u78ba\u5b9a\u6709\u5206\u78ba\u5b9a\u5f97\u5230\u8207\u78ba\u5b9a\u5931\u53bb\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u8005\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u8aaa\u5230\u9019\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u591a\u5c11\u5df2\u7d93\u80fd\u5920\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a0e\u53ad\u78ba\u5b9a\u640d\u5931\u7684\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u8ab0\u90fd\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u8f38\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f86\u770b\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff08\u6211\u6709\u7a0d\u505a\u4fee\u6539\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u5169\u500b\u7403\u8ff7\u8a08\u756b\u8981\u958b100\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u8def\u53bb\u770b\u7c43\u7403\u6bd4\u8cfd\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4eba\u5df2\u7d93\u8cb7\u4e86\u5169\u5f35\u7968\uff0c\u4e00\u5f35\u7968\u81ea\u5df1\u7528\uff0c\u4e00\u5f35\u9001\u7d66\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u3002\u5230\u4e86\u6bd4\u8cfd\u7576\u5929\u6c23\u8c61\u5831\u544a\u8aaa\u665a\u4e0a\u6703\u6709\u66b4\u98a8\u96ea\uff0c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u56de\u7a0b\u7684\u8def\uff0c\u5728\u66b4\u98a8\u96ea\u4e2d\u958b\u8eca\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4ef6\u503c\u5f97\u6109\u6085\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u4f60\u8a8d\u70ba\u54ea\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6bd4\u8f03\u6703\u4e0d\u9867\u98a8\u96ea\u963b\u6a94\uff0c\u5192\u96aa\u53bb\u770b\u9019\u5834\u7403\u8cfd\uff1f\u662f\u82b1\u9322\u7684\u4eba\u9084\u662f\u6c92\u82b1\u9322\u7684\u4eba\uff1f<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5047\u8a2d\u9019\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u5df2\u5728\u5fc3\u4e2d\u9810\u671f\u8981\u53bb\u770b\u7403\u8cfd\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u6bd4\u8cfd\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u5931\u671b\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u6c92\u53bb\u770b\u7403\u8cfd\u4e5f\u6703\u9020\u6210\u5be6\u8cea\u7684\u91d1\u9322\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u82b1\u9322\u8cb7\u7968\u7684\u4eba\u6bd4\u6c92\u82b1\u9322\u8cb7\u7968\u7684\u4eba\u640d\u5931\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u82b1\u4e86\u9322\u53c8\u6c92\u770b\u5230\u7403\u8cfd\uff0c\u8981\u627f\u53d7\u5169\u7a2e\u6253\u64ca\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u82b1\u9322\u7684\u4eba\u57f7\u610f\u8981\u53bb\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u537b\u4e0d\u53bb\u6709\u5931\u8d08\u7968\u4e4b\u79ae\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u4ee5\u5f8c\u5c31\u518d\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u514d\u8cbb\u7684\u7968\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u90e8\u4efd\u6211\u5011\u5148\u4e0d\u7d0d\u5165\u8003\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u82b1\u9322\u7684\u4eba\u771f\u7684\u300c\u8981\u300d\u56e0\u70ba\u8cfc\u7968\u7684\u640d\u5931\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8a72\u4e0d\u8a72\u53bb\u55ce\uff1f\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9322\u5df2\u7d93\u82b1\u6389\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u904e\u53bb\u5f0f\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u6240\u8981\u8003\u91cf\u7684\u4e26\u4e0d\u9700\u628a\u300c\u5df2\u6210\u5b9a\u5c40\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u300d\u8003\u616e\u9032\u4f86\uff0c\u82b1\u9322\u8cb7\u7968\u8005\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u53bb\uff0c\u7406\u667a\u4e0a\u61c9\u8a72\u554f\u81ea\u5df1\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u9019\u5f35\u7968\u662f\u5225\u4eba\u8d08\u9001\uff0c\u6211\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u4ed8\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u91d1\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9084\u8a72\u53bb\u770b\u7403\u8cfd\u55ce\uff1f\u300d\u9019\u500b\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u554f\u984c\u9700\u8981\u7d00\u5f8b\u8207\u7fd2\u6163\u624d\u80fd\u9054\u6210\uff0c\u8ddf\u5fc3\u7406\u76f4\u89ba\u9055\u80cc\u662f\u4ef6\u96e3\u514b\u670d\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u8ddf\u6211\u5011\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u505a\u505c\u640d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6642\u5f88\u985e\u4f3c\u3002<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8a3b2<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u7576\u4f60\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5df2\u7d93\u6bd4\u4f60\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u4f4e\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u5f8c\u52e2\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4f60\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u518d\u6f32\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u66f4\u591a\u640d\u5931\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u80fd\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u662f\u8667\u640d\u5df2\u7d93\u9020\u6210\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5728\u7576\u4e0b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u8ce3\u6389\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u8207\u4e0a\u8ff0\u82b1\u9322\u8cb7\u7968\u800c\u8981\u653e\u68c4\u53bb\u770b\u7403\u8cfd\u7684\u4eba\u611f\u53d7\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u4f60\u505a\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5f88\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u6703\u53d7\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u4f60\u6703\u8003\u91cf\u904e\u53bb\u5df2\u7d93\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u91d1\u9322\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u539f\u672c\u671f\u5f85\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u88ab\u6253\u62cd\u638c\uff0c\u9019\u8ddf\u627f\u8a8d\u932f\u8aa4\u4e00\u6a23\u90fd\u4e0d\u597d\u53d7\u3002\u8a72\u4e0d\u8a72\u505c\u640d\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e0d\u55ae\u662f\u7406\u6027\u5224\u65b7\u9019\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u7576\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u52e2\uff0c\u9084\u52a0\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u5fc3\u60c5\u5728\u88e1\u9762\uff0c\u66f4\u5225\u8aaa\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u60c5\u52e2\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u800c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u4e5f\u5f88\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4f60\u7336\u8c6b\u7684\u77ed\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5c31\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7834\u5e95\uff0c\u751a\u81f4\u7576\u5929\u8b8a\u6210\u8dcc\u505c\u4f60\u60f3\u505c\u640d\u4e5f\u505c\u640d\u4e0d\u4e86\u3002<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8a3b3<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u505c\u640d\u4e5f\u610f\u8b02\u8457\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9019\u5b8c\u5168\u9055\u80cc\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u3002\u6f5b\u80fd\u5927\u5e2b\u5b89\u6771\u5c3c\u7f85\u8cd3\u4e5f\u8aaa\u904e\uff1a\u300c\u4eba\u559c\u6b61\u8ffd\u6c42\u5feb\u6a02\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u300d\u6240\u4ee5\u505c\u640d\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u662f\u4ef6\u8b8a\u6210\u662f\u4ef6\u60f3\u907f\u958b\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u4e8b\u3002\u95dc\u65bc\u9019\u9ede\u6211\u5011\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u518d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5206\u4eab\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2192<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/thinking-fast-and-slow-2.html\">\u7e7c\u7e8c\u770b\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\uff1a\u4eba\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u6368\u4e0d\u5f97\u505c\u640d\uff1f(2)<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8a3b1\uff1a<\/strong>\u6b64\u70baAllais Paradox\u6240\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u77db\u76fe\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>\u8a3b2\uff1a<\/strong>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5fc3\u667a\u5e33\u6236\uff1b\u6211\u5011\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u800c\u5728\u5fc3\u4e2d\u958b\u4e00\u500b\u5e33\u6236\uff0c\u9019\u5e33\u6236\u96d6\u6c92\u6709\u5be6\u969b\u91d1\u9322\u5b58\u5728\u88e1\u9762\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u5c0d\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6240\u6295\u5165\u7684\u6240\u6709\u7121\u5f62\u8207\u6709\u5f62\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u6703\u653e\u9032\u9019\u5e33\u6236\u88e1\uff0c\u505a\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6642\u4e5f\u6703\u56e0\u800c\u62ff\u51fa\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8a3b3\uff1a<\/strong>\u80a1\u7968\u8dcc\u505c\u5c31\u8868\u793a\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u6436\u8457\u7528\u7576\u5929\u6700\u4f4e\u50f9\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u8981\u812b\u624b\u800c\u5f88\u5c11\u4eba\u8981\u63a5\uff0c\u8ce3\u6389\u8dcc\u505c\u80a1\u5c31\u8b8a\u6210\u5f88\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5728\u66f8\u5e97\u4e2d\u7528\u5305\u819c\u5c01\u8d77\u4f86\u7684\u66f8\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8ce3\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u300a\u5feb\u601d\u6162\u60f3\u300b\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u662f2002\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"yes","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[31,290,291,702,289],"wps_subtitle":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2232"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2232\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}