{"id":2970,"date":"2013-09-23T17:39:00","date_gmt":"2013-09-23T09:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/?p=2970"},"modified":"2023-03-19T13:56:34","modified_gmt":"2023-03-19T05:56:34","slug":"%e7%b2%be%e6%ba%96%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac-%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%be%9e%e5%b7%a8%e9%87%8f%e9%9b%9c%e8%a8%8a%e4%b8%ad-%e7%9c%8b%e5%87%ba%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e8%a8%8a%e6%81%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/%e7%b2%be%e6%ba%96%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac-%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%be%9e%e5%b7%a8%e9%87%8f%e9%9b%9c%e8%a8%8a%e4%b8%ad-%e7%9c%8b%e5%87%ba%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e8%a8%8a%e6%81%af\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\u300b\u95b1\u8b80\u5fc3\u5f971\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5f9e\u96dc\u8a0a\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8a0a\u606f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7576\u6211\u8b80\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u8166\u4e2d\u5192\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a\u300c<strong>\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u90fd\u4e0d\u5920\u6e96\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5225\u4f4e\u4f30\u6bcf\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u3002<\/strong>\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u9019\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7d50\u8ad6\uff01\uff1f\u300d\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u7adf\u7136\u5c0d\u9019\u7d50\u8ad6\u99ac\u4e0a\u63d0\u51fa\u8cea\u7591\uff1a<!--more-->\u300c\u83ab\u975e\u81ea\u5df1\u6c92\u6709\u770b\u61c2\u9019\u672c500\u9801\u7684\u66f8\uff1f\u300d\u53ea\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u6211\u5f88\u91cd\u8996\u81ea\u5df1\u9019\u7a2e\u9748\u5149\u4e00\u73fe\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ee3\u8868\u6211\u771f\u6b63\u672a\u7d93\u4fee\u98fe\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u4ed4\u7d30\u6d88\u5316\u9019\u53e5\u7d50\u8ad6\u5f8c\uff08\u4e2d\u9593\u53bb\u559d\u4e86\u5e7e\u53e3\u5976\u8336\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u5176\u5be6\u9084\u6eff\u7b26\u5408\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4f5c\u8005\u50b3\u9054\u7d66\u6211\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4f5c\u8005\u6700\u5f8c\u662f\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u89d2\u5ea6\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0b\u4e86\u7d50\u5c3e\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d\u6211\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u958b\u982d\u90a3\u53e5\u7d50\u8ad6\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7d66\u6211\u6700\u5927\u7684\u555f\u767c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/-CvB1xTGEDHo\/UkAJbqK7FSI\/AAAAAAAADII\/jKeOlSa3TUo\/h280\/0010598105.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u57282012\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u51fa\u7248\u6642\u6211\u5c31\u5f88\u671f\u5f85\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5c0d\u6211\u5176\u4ed6\u66f8\u8a55\u9084\u6709\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/review-power-of-habit.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6211\u5011\u9019\u6a23\u751f\u6d3b<\/a>\u300b\u53ca\u9019\u672c\u300a\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\u300b\u5c31\u662f2012\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0a\u5e02\u66f8\u4e2d\u6700\u671f\u5f85\u7684\u5169\u672c\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6b64\u66f8\u4e00\u51fa\u7248\u5c31\u6210\u70ba\u7f8e\u570bAmazon\u7684\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u6240\u4ee5\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4f5c\u8005 Nate Silver \u672c\u8eab\u5728\u300c\u9810\u6e2c\u300d\u9818\u57df\u7684\u904e\u4eba\u4e4b\u8655\uff1a\u9019\u4f4d\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u7d71\u8a08\u8207\u9810\u6e2c\u9b3c\u624d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u57282008\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\u6210\u529f\u516c\u958b\u9810\u6e2c50\u500b\u5dde\u4e2d\u768449\u500b\u5dde\u7968\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u5f8c\u8072\u540d\u5927\u566a\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u57282012\u5e74\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\uff08\u96e3\u5ea6\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u6bd42008\u5e74\u9ad8\uff09\u66f4\u662f50\/50\u5168\u4e2d\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u8981\u8aaa\u4ed6\u662f\u904b\u6c23\u597d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7121\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u770b\u5b8c\u4ed6\u5beb\u7684\u66f8\u4f60\u6703\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\u904b\u6c23\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5360\u4e86\u591a\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u5929\u5e95\u4e0b\u7121\u5947\u4e0d\u6709\uff0c\u5927\u6a02\u900f\u90fd\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u4e2d\u4e86\uff0c\u731c\u4e2d50\u500b\u5dde\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u4e5f\u6c92\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6709\u4eba\u4e00\u8f29\u5b50\u90fd\u597d\u904b\u662f\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\u66f8\u8981\u80fd\u8ce3\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u9760\u4f5c\u8005\u540d\u8072\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u9084\u662f\u5167\u5bb9\u503c\u5f97\u95b1\u8b80\uff0c\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u8b80\u8005\u672a\u77e5\u4f46\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u3002\u95dc\u65bc\u9019\u9ede\u4f5c\u8005\u6eff\u8db3\u4e86\u6211\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u88e1\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7d66\u4e86\u6211\u66f4\u591a\u770b\u5f85\u9810\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e00\u500b\u6c92\u5b78\u904e\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u7684\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5df2\u8db3\u4ee5\u62cb\u958b\u8a31\u591a\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0a\u7684\u8aa4\u89e3\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u63a5\u53d7\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u5bb9\u6613\u72af\u932f\u3002Nate Silver \u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5beb\u5230\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u300c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u60f3\u8981\u505a\u5230\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u63a5\u53d7\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u5bb9\u6613\u72af\u932f\u3002\u300d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u6574\u672c\u66f8\u5c31\u7528\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6838\u5fc3\u89c0\u5ff5\u4f86\u8cab\u7a7f\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ae0\u7bc0\uff0c\u6db5\u84cb\u4e86\u8fd110\u7a2e\u8ddf\u6a5f\u7387\u8207\u9810\u6e2c\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u9078\u8209\u6c11\u8abf\u3001\u68d2\u7403\u904b\u52d5\u3001\u6c23\u8c61\u9810\u6e2c\u3001\u5730\u9707\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u611f\u5192\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u68cb\u3001\u64b2\u514b\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u9818\u57df\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\uff1a\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u6c23\u8c61\u9810\u6e2c\u662f\u5c11\u6578\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u9818\u57df\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u554a\uff1f\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u5beb\u932f\uff1f\u6c23\u8c61\u9810\u6e2c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u300c\u5f88\u4e0d\u6e96\u300d\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5f88\u5de7\uff0c\u95b1\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6b63\u662f\u5929\u5154\u98b1\u98a8\u4f86\u64fe\u4e82\u4e2d\u79cb\u5047\u671f\uff0c\u8b93\u9ec3\u8272\u5c0f\u9d28\uff08Rubber duck\uff09\u6d29\u6c23\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u770b\u6c23\u8c61\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u5929\u5154\u88ab\u55bb\u70ba\u300c\u5730\u8868\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u98b1\u98a8\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u9664\u4e86\u6771\u90e8\u98a8\u5927\u96e8\u5927\u5916\uff0c\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u592a\u660e\u986f\u793a\u7684\u707d\u60c5\uff08\u7576\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u5f88\u597d\uff09\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8b93\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u6c23\u8c61\u9810\u6e2c\u8ddf\u6e96\u78ba\u5f88\u96e3\u756b\u4e0a\u7b49\u865f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u8b80\u5b8c\u66f8\u6703\u4e0b\u958b\u982d\u7d50\u8ad6\u300c\u5225\u4f4e\u4f30\u6bcf\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u300d\u539f\u56e0\uff0cNate Silver \u5728\u6c23\u8c61\u9019\u7ae0\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u8aaa\u670d\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u6c23\u8c61\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u5df2\u6709\u986f\u8db3\u7684\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u5167\uff0c\u9019\u9818\u57df\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u5df2\u7d93\u63d0\u5347350%\uff08\u6b64\u6578\u64da\u662f\u5c31\u7f8e\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9818\u57df\u5982\u5730\u9707\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e02\u5834\u9019\u4e9b\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u9084\u53ea\u505c\u7559\u5728\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u6642\u671f\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u6c23\u8c61\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\uff08\u7c21\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u4f55\u6642\u6709\u98b1\u98a8\uff0c\u4f46\u9084\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u5730\u9707\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u80a1\u5e02\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u5d29\u76e4\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u53ea\u662f\u6c23\u8c61\u9810\u6e2c\u6703\u8b93\u4eba\u666e\u904d\u89ba\u5f97\u4e0d\u6e96\uff0c\u5728\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u516c\u4f48\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u503c\u592a\u904e\u65bc\u5f37\u8abf\u8981\u300c\u7cbe\u6e96\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u6b63\u78ba\u300d\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u9810\u5831\u67d0\u5730\u5340\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f60%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee5\u7d71\u8a08\u6a5f\u7387\u4f86\u8aaa\u53ef\u80fd\u662f50% \u2013 70%\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u986f\u7136\u5f8c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a5f\u7387\u5340\u9593\u6703\u8b93\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u770b\u4e0d\u61c2\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7d66\u500b\u770b\u4f3c\u7ce2\u7cca\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u6709\u5931\u300c\u5c08\u696d\u300d\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u3002\u4f46\u537b\u4e5f\u662f\u904e\u65bc\u5f37\u8abf\u300c\u5c08\u696d\u300d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u90fd\u5931\u6e96\uff0c\u800c\u5c08\u696d\u7684\u5305\u88b1\u4e5f\u8b93\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u4e8b\u5f8c\u4e0d\u9858\u627f\u8a8d\u9810\u6e2c\u72af\u932f\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002\u9019\u9ede\u4f60\u5f9e\u570b\u5167\u653f\u6cbb\u6216\u80a1\u5e02\u540d\u5634\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u904e\u5f80\u66fe\u7d93\u8aaa\u904e\u7684\u8a71\u5728\u4e8b\u5f8c\u88ab\u8b49\u5be6\u662f\u932f\u6642\uff0c\u90a3\u6bb5\u8a00\u8ad6\u540d\u5634\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u627e\u5404\u7a2e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4f86\u63a9\u84cb\u4ed6\u72af\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u932f\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6574\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7b97\u4e0d\u4e0a\u662f\u5f88\u597d\u8b80\u61c2\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u591a\u5c11\u95dc\u4fc2\u5230\u7d71\u8a08\u6a5f\u7387\uff08\u5982\u679c\u662f\u6578\u5b57\u63a7\u7684\u4eba\u5c31\u6703\u559c\u6b61\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u8ac7\u7684\u9818\u57df\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u6642\u7e31\u6642\u6df1\u5730\u53bb\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u66f8\u66f4\u80fd\u8a13\u7df4\u81ea\u5df1\u5927\u8166\u601d\u7dad\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u5f9e\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u6210\u9577\u3002\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53ef\u5438\u6536\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u8f03\u591a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6703\u518d\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7bc7\u5e45\u5c07\u5176\u4ed6\u5fc3\u5f97\u7bc0\u9304\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u5c31\u6703\u5f9e\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u540d\u300a\u8a0a\u865f\u8207\u96dc\u8a0a\u300b\uff08The Signal and the Noise\uff09\u958b\u59cb\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u80cc\u666f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u73a9\u8a0a\u865f\u8207\u96dc\u8a0a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u6703\u7528\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5f9e\u9019\u9ede\u51fa\u767c\uff0c<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">\u5206\u4eab\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u4e0d\u8a72\u53c3\u8003<span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/the-signal-and-the-nois.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u63a5\u8457\u770b\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7576\u6211\u8b80\u5b8c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u8166\u4e2d\u5192\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a\u300c\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u90fd\u4e0d\u5920\u6e96\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5225\u4f4e\u4f30\u6bcf\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u3002\u300d \u300c\u9019\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7d50\u8ad6\uff01\uff1f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[116,317],"wps_subtitle":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2970"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2970"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2970\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8218,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2970\/revisions\/8218"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}