{"id":3007,"date":"2013-09-26T18:12:00","date_gmt":"2013-09-26T10:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/?p=3007"},"modified":"2023-03-19T13:54:55","modified_gmt":"2023-03-19T05:54:55","slug":"the-signal-and-the-noise-final","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.17rich.com\/the-signal-and-the-noise-final\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\u300b\u95b1\u8b80\u5fc3\u5f973\uff1a\u5b8c\u6210\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u76e1\u91cf\u53bb\u72af\u932f\u5427\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u524d\u8a18\uff1a\u5fc3\u5f97\u4f86\u5230\u7b2c\u4e09\u7bc7\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u7bc7\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5beb\u4e0b\u53bb\u5c31\u662f\u62d6\u6232\u4e86\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

\u7d93\u904e\u89e3\u8b80\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u5fc3\u614b<\/a>\u53ca\u904e\u591a\u96dc\u8a0a\u8207\u932f\u8aa4<\/a>\u5169\u7bc7\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u9019\u7bc7\u8981\u4f86\u505a\u500b\u7e3d\u7d50\u3002\u4ee5\u7d50\u8ad6\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6574\u672c\u66f8 Nate Silver\u60f3\u8981\u50b3\u9054\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u89c0\u5ff5\u662f\u300c\u8c9d\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7406\u300d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u53ef\u8aaa\u662f\u7528\u76e1\u92ea\u6897\u7684\u7b56\u7565<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e00\u6b65\u6b65\u5f15\u5c0e\u8b80\u8005\u8a8d\u540c\u9019\u5b9a\u7406\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

\u7b49\u6703\u5152\uff01\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u89ba\u5f97\u54ea\u88e1\u5361\u4f4f\u4e86\uff0c\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u8c9d\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7406\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u55ef\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0a\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u8981\u770b\u6578\u5b78\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u4e0a\u7db2\u67e5\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u516c\u5f0f\u9084\u7b97\u662f\u57fa\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u5927\u5bb6\u4e0a\u73ed\u90fd\u5f88\u7d2f\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5728\u9019\u908a\u6298\u78e8\u5404\u4f4d\u3002\u800c\u4e14 Nate Silver \u4e5f\u5f88\u8070\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u9019\u5957\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u544a\u8a34\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u8c9d\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7406\u5176\u5be6\u975e\u5e38\u9069\u5408\u89e3\u6c7a\u9019\u6a5f\u7387\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u9054\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u9810\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u8c9d\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u4f60\uff1a\u7528\u4e00\u6b65\u63a5\u4e00\u6b65\u8da8\u8fd1\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u63a5\u8fd1\u4f60\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u76e1\u91cf\u505a\u5404\u7a2e\u5617\u8a66\u7136\u5f8c\u8abf\u6574\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u60f3\u4e00\u6b21\u5c31\u8de8\u51fa\u5927\u6b65\u5b8c\u6210\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7bc7\u5fc3\u5f97\u7d50\u5c3e\u4e2d\u6703\u8aaa\u300c\u4e14\u8d70\u4e14\u770b\u300d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

Nate Silver \u5728\u7d50\u8ad6\u7bc7\u88e1\u5c31\u5c0d\u8c9d\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u904b\u7528\u5beb\u4e0b\u9019\u6bb5\u8a71\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u5617\u8a66\u3001\u72af\u932f<\/strong> \u9019\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u904b\u7528\u7684\u8c9d\u5f0f\u5b78\u6d3e\u539f\u5247\uff1a\u505a\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u4f60\u6216\u8a31\u4e0d\u60f3\u628a\u4f60\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u751f\u8a08\u62bc\u6ce8\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u662f\u9032\u6b65\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u9019\u88e1\u9762\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5169\u5b57\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e5f\u53ef\u63db\u6210\u300c\u9810\u671f\u8981\u5b8c\u6210\u672a\u4f86\u67d0\u76ee\u6a19\u300d\u3002\u597d\u6bd4\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u6295\u8cc7\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4f60\u8eab\u4e0a\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u9322\uff0c\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u2013\u2013\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u2013\u2013\u662f\u60f3\u8cfa\u56de\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u9322\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u4e00\u6b21\u68ad\u54c8\u628a\u9322\u5168\u58d3\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5927\u8d0f\u6216\u5927\u8f38\u5c31\u7b49\u8457\u770b\u7d50\u679c\uff1b\u4f60\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6162\u6162\u7684\u704c\u5165\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6210\u6548\u518d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u91d1\u9322\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c92\u6709\u770b\u5230\u9810\u671f\u6210\u9577\u5c31\u6e1b\u5c11\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u76e1\u91cf\u5617\u8a66\u5404\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u7a2e Trial and Error\uff08\u4e2d\u6587\u53eb\u5617\u8a66\u932f\u8aa4\u6cd5\uff09\u4e0d\u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\uff0c\u8209\u51e1\u505a\u4e8b\u696d\u3001\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u8cfa\u88ab\u52d5\u6536\u5165\u7b49\u90fd\u53ef\u7528\u4e0a\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u500b\u820a\u89c0\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u8eab\u8655\u5728\u904e\u591a\u96dc\u8a0a\u7684\u65b0\u8cc7\u8a0a\u6642\u4ee3\u7279\u5225\u53d7\u7528\u3002\u65e9\u4e00\u8f29\u4eba\u8655\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u6642\u4ee3\u6240\u4ee5\u8655\u8655\u5145\u6eff\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u4e0d\u9867\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u5f80\u524d\u885d\u6709\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u597d\u7d50\u679c\uff1b\u53ef\u662f\u73fe\u4eca\u4e16\u4ee3\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u537b\u662f\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e0d\u5c0f\u5fc3\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u90fd\u69a8\u4e7e\uff08\u9322\u6216\u7cbe\u529b\u90fd\u6703\uff09\u3002<\/strong>\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u70ba\u4f55\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u8a31\u591a\u89c0\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e0d\u8a72\u53ea\u7576\u4f5c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4f86\u770b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u88e1\u9762\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8ffd\u6c42\u4eba\u751f\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u667a\u6167\u53ef\u5b78\u7fd2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7e3d\u7d50\uff1a<\/h3>\n

\u96a8\u8457\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7684\u7206\u70b8\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u4e0d\u5c0f\u5fc3\u5c31\u6703\u5c07\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u4e00\u6563\u7528\u76e1\uff0c\u91d1\u9322\u3001\u8ca1\u5bcc\u3001\u4eba\u8108\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u70ba\u8aa4\u4fe1\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff08\u96dc\u8a0a\uff09\u800c\u6bc0\u65bc\u4e00\u65e6\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u8b8a\u5316\u842c\u5343\u7684\u4e16\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e14\u8d70\u4e14\u770b\u3001Trial and Error\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u5931\u70ba\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e2d\u6c42\u6210\u9577\u7684\u597d\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u8981\u5b78\u6703\u7528\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5fc3\u614b\u53bb\u601d\u8003\u9019\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u5e6b\u52a9\u81ea\u5df1\u5c11\u8d70\u5f88\u591a\u51a4\u6789\u8def\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5927\u8166\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u5011\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u5927\u5f97\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8b70\u3002\u7528\u6a5f\u7387\u601d\u8003\u7684\u597d\u8655\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u5f37\u8feb\u81ea\u5df1\u505c\u4e0b\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u8cc7\u6599\u2013\u2013\u6162\u4e0b\u4f86\uff0c\u8003\u91cf\u4e00\u4e0b\u4f60\u601d\u8003\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u4f60\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u9019\u6a23\u6703\u8b93\u4f60\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u6c7a\u7b56\u8b8a\u597d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u6703\u597d\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u7576\u7136\u4e5f\u5c31\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f8c\u8a18\uff1a<\/h3>\n

\u524d\u9762\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u8ac7\u7684\u8ddf\u4e00\u822c\u8a8d\u70ba\u7684\u300c\u9810\u6e2c\u300d\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff08\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u89e3\u8b80\u8f03\u5ee3\u6cdb\u539f\u56e0\uff09\u3002\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u5b83\u4e0d\u53ea\u6559\u4eba\u5b78\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ea\u544a\u8a34\u5225\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u63ed\u7a7f\u5047\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u662f\u5728\u6559\u5c0e\u4eba\u89e3\u8b80\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u5fc3\u614b\u3001\u89c0\u5ff5\uff0c\u5b78\u7fd2\u5982\u4f55\u5f9e\u6d77\u91cf\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e2d\u7be9\u9078\u51fa\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u3002\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u5b78\u7fd2\u5982\u4f55\u627e\u51fa\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u5229\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u5b78\u7fd2\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u7a7f\u6709\u5fc3\u4eba\u7684\u628a\u6232\uff0c\u5b78\u7fd2\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u958b\u9032\u64ca\u5de8\u4eba\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u7684\u64cd\u5f04<\/strong>\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2192 \u300a\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\u300b\uff08\u535a\u5ba2\u4f86\u00a0<\/strong>\u4e2d\u6587\u7248<\/strong><\/a>\u3001<\/strong>\u539f\u6587\u7248<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c<\/strong>Amazon\u539f\u6587\u7248<\/strong><\/a>\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3010\u8aa0\u5be6\u5229\u76ca\u8072\u660e\u3011\u900f\u904e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u535a\u5ba2\u4f86\u9023\u7d50\u8cfc\u66f8\u6211\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u8cfc\u66f8\u56de\u994b\u91d1\uff0c\u5b58\u4e0b\u66f4\u591a\u8cb7\u66f8\u9322\u3002<\/p>\n

(1stimage via\u00a0TerranceDC<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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